Sure Things

© Laurence B. Winn

Mar 29, 2001

Thales of Miletus, a Greek philosopher who was a contemporary of Solon and Croesus more than six hundred years before the birth of Christ, left no written record, but only a reputation for wisdom. What makes him special is that he was the first in Western thought to propose the idea of a single, Unifying Principle that explains the way things work.

Indeed, Thales seems to have had a gift for reducing the complex to the simple, as when he suggested deducing the height of the pyramids by measuring the shadows they cast at that time of day when the length a man's shadow is the same as his height.

There is enormous power in understanding a Unifying Principle, if one can be found. And it's not just philosophical power, but the power of wealth and influence.

Thales was poor, the story goes, but hadn't noticed until some local bullies pointed it out, probably while taking exception to one of his ideas. Their problem with the philosopher was the classical one: If you're so smart, why aren't you rich?

Stung, Thales employed his understanding of meteorology to predict the occurrence of a bountiful crop of olives in the coming year. Knowing that this would place a strain on the existing supply of olive presses for making oil, he engaged every press he could find at a bargain price. When his predicted bumper crop materialized, the growers were forced to use the only presses available at whatever price Thales chose to charge. The philosopher made a fortune, and after that enjoyed the company of a better class of people.

Like predicting the weather, predicting future economic trends is a test of the ideas upon which the prediction is based. That is what gives frontier theory utility beyond the academic exercise of understanding history.

Frontier theory foresees that social planners, religious leaders, government agencies and others who profess to guide us, and have bombed out, will continue to fail, because they address symptoms rather than root causes, most of which have to do with enclosure -- the absence of frontiers. (See "First Principles".) But that is a huge root cause. What, exactly, are you supposed to do about it?

Nothing, perhaps.

What remains is to figure out how to profit from the fall of Western Civilization.

The three pillars of success in this endeavor have classical roots. They are Authority, Mystery and Superstition. If they sound familiar, it may be because they are also the ingredients of fundamentalist religion.

Authority is the easy part: First money, then power. The key is to recognize that the needs of enclosed populations are based on movement toward two-tier economic striation. Ultimately, there will be no middle class -- at least not on this planet -- just a small number of very rich people, among whom you hope to number, and the rest. Basically, you want to be a purveyor of energy, upscale products, or life-or-death services, but the image you want, insofar as you allow it to be seen at all, must be professionally altruistic. It is consistent with your objective to be an advisor to governments, but never hold public office. To do so would make you familiar.

Be mysterious. Don't have a public address. Don't have a public phone number. Whatever you do, don't give interviews. The reason for this has to do with the zero-sumness of business in an enclosed society. (See "The Zero-Sum Syndrome".) You will be taking from people less well off than yourself. You can count on being hated. When you need a public face, use other people.

Promote superstition. Magic is a seductive lie, inviting all sorts of useful delusions about one's situation. Best of all is the delusion of faith -- truth without proof -- because it means you never have to offer any of either.

Having read all that, you will realize that many details have been omitted, not the least of which is how you are supposed to live with yourself. Hey, that's not my problem. Thales of Miletus did have one great advantage over you. His world was not yet enclosed.

The details are best spread over several articles. So, next month, in "Sure Things II", we'll examine the future of business according to frontier theory by describing some of the enterprises most likely to prosper as enclosure deepens.